What Would It Take for PayPal to Say Yes?
A massive price gap is stalling the Stripe and PayPal buyout deal ahead of a critical October earnings deadline.
A leaked takeover eventually stops giving leverage to the companies involved. It becomes a liability instead. PayPal is currently approaching that exact point.
Current Status of the Stripe and PayPal Negotiations
Stripe and Advent International offered $60.50 per share in July. That price valued PayPal around $53 billion. The buyers had about $50 billion in committed bank financing ready to go. The board said no. They reportedly wanted a number closer to $70. The conversation should have ended there. The Wall Street Journal reported on August 14 that talks never actually stopped. The report suggested a new agreement could happen in the coming weeks. A month has passed since that phrase first appeared in print.
The price difference sits around $10 per share. For a company of this size, that equals roughly $8 billion to $9 billion. You cannot resolve a gap that large over a quick golf weekend. Both sides are intentionally sharing information with the press. They are negotiating through the media because they cannot close the deal privately.
The Timeline and Key Dates for a Final Agreement
The active window runs from now through mid-September. The banks committed the financing back in July. The due diligence process has been active since April. Only the final price remains unresolved. Bankers typically use the period right after Labor Day to force a final decision.
The second week of October is a major checkpoint. PayPal closes its third quarter on September 30. Internal preliminary numbers reach management a few weeks later. Because due diligence is still active, those same early numbers will also reach Stripe and Advent. All of this happens two to three weeks before the public sees the official earnings report on October 27.
Having early access to those numbers changes the negotiation. If the third quarter looks strong, the PayPal board will know first. They will have every reason to sign an agreement before the public disclosure. They can use the private good news to justify a higher purchase price. If the numbers look weak, the buyers will find out by mid-October. They can simply wait and let the public earnings report drive the price down. Management already told investors to expect a low double-digit decline in earnings per share for the third quarter.
An announcement signed between October 12, and October 26 likely signals a strong quarter. Total silence leading into the earnings report points to weak numbers.
Estimated Odds for a Deal Announcement
Here is a rough breakdown of when a signed announcement might happen for educational tracking purposes:
September: 30%
October 1 through October 26: 20%
Rest of August: 15%
November and December: 15%
Talks completely collapse: 15%
2027 or later: 5%
You can look at this as roughly a two in three chance of an announcement before the October 27 earnings call. If an agreement happens, expect the news on a Monday before the stock market opens. Companies prefer this timing. It allows boards to meet over the weekend and helps them avoid stopping stock trading during normal hours.
Regulatory Hurdles and Growing Market Competition
Signing an agreement does not mean the deal is finished. A regulatory assessment from August 5 suggested that getting government approval might require selling off Venmo or Braintree. Regulators have a clear structural objection. They do not want one single company owning the payment systems that merchants use and the digital wallets that consumers pay from at the same time. Expect regulators to issue a second request for information. An EU review is also highly likely. The deal would probably not close until late 2027 at the earliest.
Competitors are moving forward while these talks drag on. X Money launched in July. They offered a 6% annual percentage yield and a Visa card to an audience of 600 million people. Whoever finally signs this agreement will spend two years integrating their massive software systems. The competition will be growing freely the entire time.
Disclaimer:
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